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Tough times ahead for Syria

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The recent downing of a Russian jet by the Turkish military threw a spanner in the works in the Syrian war.

tough times for syria

By Samuel Abuya

World leaders this Wednesday tried to reduce pressures over Turkey’s downing a Russian warplane plane flying over the Syrian-Turkish border airspace since there have been worries that the contention in Syria could rapidly escalate into a bigger, territorial war.

With such a large number of characters at play in the air and on the ground in Syria – Russia, Iran, Turkey, U.S. also, coalition accomplices, and their intermediary radical and government groups – experts have been cautioning of the contention spilling a long ways past Syria’s borders.

Mindful of the perils, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Wednesday got on the telephone with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and focused on the need for both sides “not to permit this episode to heighten pressures.”

In Germany, French President Francois Hollande, talking at a news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said “we must do everything in our power to de-heighten and to restore dialogue.”

While addressing the press, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the bringing down of the jet amounted to “an arranged incitement” yet said Moscow would not fight with Turkey, a member of the NATO.

Rather Russia reacted by sending more force to its camp in Latakia, Syria, including its S-400 safeguard rocket framework, and restoring its bombarding of hostile anti-Assad rebel zones close to where the Russian plane crashed.

Dangers of more extensive war

The hostility between Ankara and Moscow has debilitated trusts that French President Francois Hollande will have the capacity to pull together a “grand coalition” of nations – including Russia – against Islamic State radicals after the deadly IS assault in Paris.

Also, with all countries involved now on edge, the dangers of a more extensive war have expanded, cautioned Stratfor military investigator Omar Lamrani.

The United States is endeavoring to abstain from turning the Syria struggle “into a hot war with Russia,” said Lamrani. “Be that as it may, we do need to think about a situation of a regional war.”

While France and the United States are clear that their motives in Syria are to crush Islamic State, on the ground the contention is significantly more serious.

Russia’s intention

Political analysts see Moscow’s mediation in the Syrian strife as a move a long way past its expressed reason for keeping its partner Syrian pioneer Bashar al Assad in authority.

As indicated by the Institute for the Study of War, before Monday’s occurrence, Russia had over and over pestered U.S. and Turkish airplanes and disregarded Turkish airspace.

Stephen Blank, an American Foreign Policy Council master, said Russia is simply starting to acknowledge that it is so costly to get militarily included in the Middle East.

“The Russians were making an effort to warn the Turks not to side with Syria, and they have an intense lesson that you don’t commence with the Turkish forces. What’s more, this ought to be a lesson to Moscow that interceding in Syria has taken a toll well beyond what they had expected,” Blank said.

The Islamic State has exploited the disorder in Syria and Iraq to seize expansive tracts of land in both nations, set up a fiercely implemented semi state and effectively support terrorist assaults abroad.